A Home Office research note published on 5 March 2026 estimates the lifetime net fiscal cost of care workers and their adult dependants expected to settle in the UK between 2026 and 2030.
The note estimates the net lifetime cost of care workers and their adult dependants expected to settle between 2026 and 2030 at £9.5 billion, or £10 billion to the nearest billion.
Inputs. The Home Office combined three published sources.
The first is Home Office visa data. Between 2022 and 2024, 616,266 visas were issued on the Health and Care route: 249,594 to main applicants and 366,672 to dependants. Of these, 154,342 were issued for people working in "Caring Personal Services" (SOC 613). That is approximately 62% of main applicant visas on the route.
The second is the Home Office settlement forecast in "A Fairer Pathway to Settlement: statement and accompanying consultation on earned settlement". It forecasts 1.3 million to 2.2 million people settling between 2026 and 2030 (central estimate 1.6 million). Of these, 462,000 were estimated to have originally come on the Health and Care route: 189,000 as main applicants and 274,000 as dependants.
The third is the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) report "The Fiscal Impact of Immigration". For the 2022 to 2023 cohort, it estimates a net lifetime contribution of -£36,000 for care workers and -£67,000 for adult dependants on the Health and Care route.
Method. Internal Home Office data indicates that 47% of dependant visas issued on the route between 2022 and 2024 went to adults aged 18 and above.
No data matches dependants to individual occupations, so the note assumes the same 62% of dependants accompanied people in Caring Personal Services. It describes this as uncertain and possibly an underestimate. Its reason is that the ratio of main applicants to dependants was 1:1 in 2021 and had increased to 1:1.4 by 2023.
Applying these proportions to the settlement forecast, the note states 117,000 care worker main applicants (189,000 × 62%) and 79,000 adult dependants (274,000 × 62% × 47%). The product of the adult dependant calculation as written is about 79,800.
Multiplying the note's stated volumes by the MAC estimates gives £4.2 billion and £5.3 billion, which add up to £9.5 billion.
Stated limits. The note applies the 2022 to 2023 cohort estimates to the entire cohort over the period. It describes them as the Home Office's best estimate of the lifetime fiscal impact of the relevant cohorts.
What this means for applicants
The note sets out no requirement for applicants or sponsors. It is an analytical estimate, and the source does not say what, if anything, will follow from it.
Related guide: Health and Care visa requirements
Sources
- Estimated lifetime net fiscal costs for care workers and their adult dependants, Home Office, 5 March 2026