Independent report examines who stays and who leaves on the Skilled Worker route

An independent report published on 12 May 2026 analyses how long Skilled Worker main applicants stay in the UK, using linked Home Office records on 916,000 journeys from 2014 to 2024.

The source text available for this item ends partway through Chapter 3, so it covers the introduction, background, methodology and descriptive statistics only.

The report, "Who stays, who leaves? Evidence from administrative records on the Skilled Worker route", examines whether main applicants on Tier 2 (General), Skilled Worker and Health and Care Worker visas still hold valid UK status. Valid status means a visa, indefinite leave to remain (ILR) or citizenship. It combines Home Office Migrant Journey data with Certificate of Sponsorship (CoS) records, which add salary, occupation and industry.

Data. The linked dataset holds 999,000 unique journeys and 1,427,000 main applicant visas. Published statistics show 1,436,000 visas for the same period. After exclusions, 916,000 journeys remain, of which 888,000 (97%) link to a CoS record. Intra-Company Transfer, Sportsperson and Minister of Religion visas are not included.

Method. People are assumed to have left the UK once their most recent visa expires. The report says some leave earlier and some overstay, and calls this a significant evidence gap. Dependants cannot yet be reliably linked to main applicants, so they are not analysed.

Findings in the introduction. The report says that:

• migrants earning the lowest wages are the most likely to remain long term, with some evidence that the highest earners are the most likely income group to leave;
• health and care workers are particularly likely to remain;
• higher education professionals, such as researchers in the Skilled Worker route, are particularly likely to leave. Global Talent researchers are not covered.

Descriptive statistics.

• The most common point for leave to expire is three years after the first Skilled Worker visa. The report says this is likely to be driven mainly by the initial visa duration, for which three years is the most common.
• Expiry becomes rare after six years.
• Among migrants observed for five years or more, those with expired status were on average older at entry (32.3 against 30.6 years) and more likely to be male (63.2% against 55.2%).
• They were also more likely to have worked in education and less likely to have worked in health and social care, and had higher salaries on average.
• Among those who moved to a Skilled Worker visa from inside the UK, the share coming from student or graduate routes fell from 91% for the 2014–2020 cohort to around 77% for 2021–2024.

Related guide: Skilled Worker visa UK

Sources

• Who stays, who leaves? Evidence from administrative records on the Skilled Worker route, GOV.UK, published 12 May 2026 (Crown copyright, Open Government Licence v3.0)